tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78491175255161473842012-02-16T11:22:45.335-08:00基金的動態線圖與每月扣款對象gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.comBlogger231100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-33073953092300806482008-06-10T08:32:00.001-07:002008-06-10T08:33:22.270-07:00瑞士銀行(盧森堡)全球戰略配置基金(歐元)<br /><a href="http://bp0.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SE6erADg7tI/AAAAAAAAAbo/bkbDeJFpAzk/s1600-h/11.PNG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp0.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SE6erADg7tI/AAAAAAAAAbo/bkbDeJFpAzk/s400/11.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210276280500547282" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-3307395309230080648?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-47460824233476515812008-06-10T07:45:00.000-07:002008-06-10T07:49:53.067-07:00瑞銀(盧森堡)全球創新趨勢股票基金<br />目前不宜扣款<br /><a href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SE6UAMvvmeI/AAAAAAAAAbg/sICNsgXVEJg/s1600-h/1.PNG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SE6UAMvvmeI/AAAAAAAAAbg/sICNsgXVEJg/s400/1.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5210264550056630754" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-4746082423347651581?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-6059169270075077402008-06-09T23:59:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:46:17.440-07:00進入相對高點<br />所以停止扣款<br /><a href="http://bp2.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SE00gl_xpsI/AAAAAAAAAZk/FmsvXiYtiPY/s1600-h/amex+ghiy.PNG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp2.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SE00gl_xpsI/AAAAAAAAAZk/FmsvXiYtiPY/s400/amex+ghiy.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5209878078497597122" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEJI3fwK6RI/AAAAAAAAAVA/KF7k-LvwH5I/s1600-h/aa.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEJI3fwK6RI/AAAAAAAAAVA/KF7k-LvwH5I/s400/aa.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5206804237447260434" /></a><br />美國運通全球高收益<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-605916927007507740?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-63744132477124348282008-06-05T07:01:00.000-07:002008-06-05T07:03:01.999-07:00<a href="http://bp2.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEfx864mHbI/AAAAAAAAAX0/b3qfWCIkt-I/s1600-h/2.PNG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp2.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEfx864mHbI/AAAAAAAAAX0/b3qfWCIkt-I/s400/2.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5208397522978348466" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-6374413247712434828?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-52812477474015338282008-06-02T00:22:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:44:03.279-07:00瑞銀高收益歐元債券B雙隨機指標圖<br />接下來是回測87<br />如果守住87<br />就是跌勢鬆動,可以重手扣一次<br /><br /><a href="http://bp1.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SENBzZNH-fI/AAAAAAAAAVk/qSS5iZXWsMM/s1600-h/aa.PNG"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp1.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SENBzZNH-fI/AAAAAAAAAVk/qSS5iZXWsMM/s400/aa.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5207077945365494258" /></a><br />瑞銀高收益歐元債券B<br /><a href="http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/7029/ubsehybbp3.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/7029/ubsehybbp3.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-5281247747401533828?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-58840290435332917132008-06-01T17:48:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:45:37.689-07:00百利達歐洲金融股票<br /><a href="http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/163/parefinsmu2.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/163/parefinsmu2.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-5884029043533291713?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-50844217171718092702008-06-01T08:32:00.000-07:002008-06-01T17:06:41.741-07:00<font size=3><br />回顧本年 <br />1月份主要是扣款在歐元債券和最安全的政府債 <br />2月份是扣款對象主要是股票基金,基金週線都已經低檔向上 <br />3月份和2月份扣款對象相同,都是風險最高的股票型 <br />4月份則將扣款的對象由風險最高的股票型降一及,成為大區域基金和高收益債 <br />並且捕近最長線的次貸危機帳戶 <br />5月份的目標不在獲利而在守成,要迴避可能出現的下跌風險 <br />預定以spy或vix期權對沖基金部位 <br />買進熊市基金 <br />平倉profund半導體 <br />放空指數期貨 <br />拋售抵捕的call <br />作為五月份的操作主軸<br /><br />六月份的操作思維與五月份相似,但可能是由五月份的規劃和觀察,道六月份逐步實行<br />債券部份<br />天達環球債券的單隨機指標發出扣款信號,但是雙隨機指標系統則否,所以是清手扣款或是不扣<br />債券的利多是股市可能不佳,利空是通膨可能升溫<br />債券宜短不宜長,30年國債跳空跌破115,也不排除逼近110<br />英鎊債券可能下探103<br />德國公債下探110<br />瑞士公債將破118<br />預計最弱勢的澳洲長期公債將下探93,刷新8年的新低紀錄<br />最強的加拿大長期公債也將回測至115<br />因此六月可能是股債雙殺的局面<br />可以考慮profund的30年國債升息基金和李門兄弟20年債券選擇權來對沖大額債券和債券基金<br />新興債和高收債由雙隨機指標來評估,都在不適合扣款的狀態<br />但是周隨機下降之後,將決定是否鬆動的關鍵,如果鬆動的話,將再重手扣款一次<br /><br />股市方面<br />預定以spy或vix期權對沖基金部位 或買進熊市基金 <br />預估美股以道瓊最弱<br />短線的期貨空單和中線的spy或vix期權對沖基金部位 或熊市基金 <br />都各自等待雙隨機指標信號出現後進場 <br /><br />參考[源自2007年10月份的衰退和復甦] 這一文<br />(精華區 <a href="http://gd41662.blogspot.com/2008/02/200710.html ">http://gd41662.blogspot.com/2008/02/200710.html </a>或完整討論 <a href="http://forums.guestbook.com.tw/f2/viewtopic.php?t=246&start=15&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=&mforum=gd4166">http://forums.guestbook.com.tw/f2/viewtopic.php?t=246&start=15&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=&mforum=gd4166</a>) 如果profund的30年國債升息基金和李門兄弟20年債券選擇權對沖成功,金融業基本面將再度轉壞,這對大盤是很深的傷害,大盤的跌幅將由SP500金融指數左右,但是預計不會在使30年與一個月的值利率曲線反轉,這個比率目前的讀數還在2.38,距離值利率曲線反轉還很遠,FED也不會坐視值利率曲線再度反轉<br /><br />金融業的基本面攸關復甦的第一歨,所以應持續觀察SP500金融指數與profund銀行基金(有二倍槓桿性質),profund銀行基金不能守住19~20,大盤就有隱憂(參考profund銀行這一貼 <a href="http://gd41667.blogspot.com/2008/05/profund.html">http://gd41667.blogspot.com/2008/05/profund.html</a>)<br /><br />在各股方面,情況還不明時,仙以拋售抵捕的call 作為因應<br /><br />復甦的第二步:不動產復甦(參照<a href="http://gd41668.blogspot.com/2008/05/blog-post_30.html">http://gd41668.blogspot.com/2008/05/blog-post_30.html</a>的詳細數據和說明)<br />五月份新房銷售只有去年大約一半,但是已經比前一個月好,初步是止跌的<br />但是中古屋庫存達到11個月以上<br />成交價雖然比去年同期大幅下跌8%但是在本月出現了1.1%的上揚,也是初步止跌的<br />再次貸的危機帳戶中,暫時和整提操作依樣,先行止扣</font><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-5084421717171809270?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-31979574359361114302008-06-01T06:28:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:42:16.488-07:00天達環球債券又該扣款了<br /><br />相當偏好這支全球債券 <br />因為他很簡單,坡動度適當 <br />非常適合隨機指標 <br /><br /><a href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SD6v8yeYxUI/AAAAAAAAAOE/WtlS2wB4ynQ/s1600-h/qq.PNG"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SD6v8yeYxUI/AAAAAAAAAOE/WtlS2wB4ynQ/s400/qq.PNG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5205791678163109186" /></a><br /><br /><a href="http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/460/iamggbfc1.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/460/iamggbfc1.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><a href="http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/7708/investecgbun0.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/7708/investecgbun0.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><a href="http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/6946/investecgb970107wc3.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/6946/investecgb970107wc3.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><a href="http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/2513/investecgb961122hz8.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/2513/investecgb961122hz8.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-3197957435936111430?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-4793171121241581552008-06-01T00:37:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:43:47.277-07:00<a href="http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/1017/lbfaxtm7.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/1017/lbfaxtm7.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />法儲銀盧米斯賽勒斯債券<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-479317112124158155?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-56025481832708700652008-06-01T00:27:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:43:21.909-07:00<a href="http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/3223/tpebap5.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/3223/tpebap5.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />坦柏頓新興國家固定收益<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-5602548183270870065?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-74112100752830098502008-06-01T00:21:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:42:36.359-07:00<a href="http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/7070/investecusdbkp4.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/7070/investecusdbkp4.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><a href="http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/5128/iamgusdbfd5.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/5128/iamgusdbfd5.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />天達美元債券<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-7411210075283009850?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-75785713836675800752008-06-01T00:20:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:41:11.245-07:00<a href="http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/4886/iamgusdhybxe6.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/4886/iamgusdhybxe6.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />天達美元高收益債券基金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-7578571383667580075?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-23211711250688470342008-06-01T00:18:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:41:46.883-07:00<a href="http://img48.imageshack.us/img48/5672/investecmoneyas7.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img48.imageshack.us/img48/5672/investecmoneyas7.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br /><a href="http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/3369/iamgmczv1.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/3369/iamgmczv1.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />天達理財貨幣基金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-2321171125068847034?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-83919355908935570932008-06-01T00:17:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:41:11.246-07:00<a href="http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/6345/iamgghybgg5.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img54.imageshack.us/img54/6345/iamgghybgg5.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />天達環球高收益債券基金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-8391935590893557093?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-14153670633185791982008-06-01T00:15:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:39:49.600-07:00<a href="http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/7703/mgcbtf7.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/7703/mgcbtf7.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />M&G公司債<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-1415367063318579198?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-89328890982242567182008-06-01T00:13:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:39:49.601-07:00<a href="http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/8181/mgehybkk0.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/8181/mgehybkk0.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />M&G歐洲高收債<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-8932889098224256718?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-11472943087137553472008-06-01T00:09:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:39:49.602-07:00M&G歐洲公司債<br /><a href="http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/404/mgebzn4.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img505.imageshack.us/img505/404/mgebzn4.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-1147294308713755347?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-91235437538825149222008-06-01T00:02:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:45:03.467-07:00<a href="http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/5305/ubsemqu6.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/5305/ubsemqu6.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />瑞銀歐洲中型股<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-9123543753882514922?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-58419669644286833852008-06-01T00:00:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:46:03.002-07:00<a href="http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/9584/pebai8.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/9584/pebai8.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />百利達歐元債券基金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-5841966964428683385?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-487081549776253652008-05-31T23:57:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:46:56.938-07:00<a href="http://bp2.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEJImMpCsTI/AAAAAAAAAU4/jPPuyBkDuD0/s1600-h/aa.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp2.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEJImMpCsTI/AAAAAAAAAU4/jPPuyBkDuD0/s400/aa.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5206803940259311922" /></a><br />荷銀歐元債券基金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-48708154977625365?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-68230582710621892822008-05-31T23:53:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:46:45.409-07:00<a href="http://bp0.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEJISoYm54I/AAAAAAAAAUw/nZCtbChSv5s/s1600-h/aa.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://bp0.blogger.com/_CKyI-u1tc08/SEJISoYm54I/AAAAAAAAAUw/nZCtbChSv5s/s400/aa.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5206803604109191042" /></a><br />美林世界黃金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-6823058271062189282?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-42996970064010377012008-05-27T00:38:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:47:04.100-07:00<a href="http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/9594/abnembwo7.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/9594/abnembwo7.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />荷銀新興市場債券基金<br />如果各位在十年前就投資新興國家政府債券,經過1997~1998年年的新興國家政府債券大空頭,就會有不一樣的看法,那兩年裡面,過半數的新興國家政府公債跌幅50%,跌幅70%的大有人在,許多新興國家政府債券基金都通知禁止贖回,別懷疑,基金公開說明書都有這樣規定,只是大家都不看公開說明書,也沒有接到過基金公司不准贖回基金的通知 <br /><br />投資新興國家政府債券只有兩個要求,一是要新興國家政府準時發債息,二是債券到期準時還本金,如果你手上有一張委內瑞拉政府公債或是印尼政府公債,用100元買進的,買進之後,委內瑞拉政府或是印尼政府發生政變,停止發息和償債,等到新政府上任之後再說,這時候妳手上的這一張委內瑞拉政府公債或是印尼政府公債差不多要打幾折拍賣,人家才願意買,4折?3折? <br /><br />荷銀新興債這隻基金討論很多,因為配息很高,雞校很高 <br /><br />基金配置情況:74%買債券，26%現金,基金經理人開始進入防守姿態,現金比例拉到26%,妳買1000元荷銀新興債基金,手續費適用1000元算收,但實際上只買到740元債券,260元是當閒置資金的 <br /><br />目前持有32隻債券 <br />前十大持股佔75.87% <br />平均債信低於B,平均存續年度8.3年 <br />這是非常非常少見的方式 <br /><br />一班高收債和新興債的風險很高,所以都回持有分散的債券,一班大基金都在100隻以上,小規模基金會在60隻以上,像坦柏頓公司債雞金通常持有150~200隻債券,防止一家公司倒債,造成基金淨值大失血, 只持有32隻債券的新興債雞金很少見, 前十大持股佔75.87%也是極為集中的做法, 平均存續年度8.3年也很少見到這麼長的, <br /><br />基金持股當中,有一隻委內瑞拉公債,7.65%利率,2025年到期,這一隻公債就佔全部雞金的23.5%,將進1/4的資產放在這一隻債券,委內瑞拉,阿根廷,印尼這三個國家佔全部基金的55%,委內瑞拉和印尼都是政治不穩定國家 <br />這隻基金還允許操作外匯,目前放空歐元兌美元匯率大約6千萬歐元 <br /><br /><br />風險和獲利總是相伴而生 <br /><br />一些持股比較分線風險的高收益債基金 <br /><br />坦伯頓公司債目前持有169隻債券 <br />荷銀高收益債目前持有172隻債券 <br />美運美國高收益債目前持有176隻債券 <br />富達歐洲高收益債目前持有231隻債券 <br />高盛全球高收益債目前持有684隻債券 (有夠分散) <br />美運新興債目前持有65隻債券 <br />德盛新興債目前持有162隻債券<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-4299697006401037701?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7849117525516147384.post-79936405931903562762008-05-01T08:42:00.000-07:002008-06-09T17:47:31.450-07:00<a href="http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/4496/lgl960505ei0.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px;" src="http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/4496/lgl960505ei0.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />英鎊債券基金<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/7849117525516147384-7993640593190356276?l=gd41666.blogspot.com' alt='' /></div>gd4166http://www.blogger.com/profile/14825079335443040958noreply@blogger.com0